Entrants

player deck
FrozenStorm [Future]/Necromancy/Peace
charnel_mouse [Balance]/Blood/Strength
CarpeGuitarrem [Necromancy]/Blood/Present
zhavier [Balance/Growth]/Finesse
Nopethebard MonoRed
Akiata PPA
Bomber678 MonoRed
bolyarich Nightmare
dwarddd [Past/Present]/Peace
EricF [Feral]/Fire/Law
codexnewb Miracle Grow

Completed matches

Matchup plots

Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)

Deck only

Overall

Matchup tables

Deck-only

Overall

Nash equilibria for entrants

Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).

Mean Nash win rate

Deck-only mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.533
P2 0.467
Both 0.500

Overall mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.501
P2 0.499
Both 0.500

Mean Nash pick rate

Deck-only mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
Nightmare 0.277 0.172 0.286
[Necromancy]/Blood/Present 0.125 0.200 0.229
Miracle Grow 0.224 0.107 0.117
PPA 0.080 0.108 0.102
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.066 0.085 0.079
[Balance]/Blood/Strength 0.055 0.121 0.076
MonoRed 0.103 0.039 0.044
[Past/Present]/Peace 0.018 0.105 0.040
[Balance/Growth]/Finesse 0.035 0.040 0.020
[Feral]/Fire/Law 0.017 0.023 0.007

Overall mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
bolyarich 0.450 0.414 0.563
EricF 0.150 0.225 0.171
FrozenStorm 0.140 0.175 0.141
zhavier 0.131 0.115 0.096
dwarddd 0.024 0.052 0.021
Bomber678 0.052 0.006 0.005
codexnewb 0.042 0.004 0.002
Akiata 0.006 0.002 0.001
charnel_mouse 0.005 0.005 0.001
CarpeGuitarrem 0.000 0.001 0.000

Tournament & evaluation

Plots

Evaluation

forecast Brier score
always 5-5 0.250
model 0.144